The election is over.

We are now in Week Four of the Donald Trump presidency. We have already seen a whirlwind of controversy as Trump drives hard to make good on his campaign promises.

Whether you support or are against our 45th president, how will he impact the HVAC Industry?

Bart James,senior vice president, government relations,  ACCA

Back in December 2016, I spoke with Bart James, senior vice president of government relations, ACCA for his take on how the industry might be affected. James told me that he was very positive on what this presidency holds for every business in America.

“Overall, our members are pretty darned excited,” James said, “not only with a Trump presidency, but also a Republican-controlled House and Senate.”

In fact, James says he feels the stars are aligned for some really positive actions, especially in regard to reducing the number of regulations he deems unfair to consumers and awful for the the HVAC industry.

“I think there is certainly a need for regulations, but they need to make sense,” James said. “We are now on track for some good things to happen.”

I also spoke with Francis Dietz, vice president of public affairs, Air-Conditioning Heating, & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) and he concurred, calling the Trump win an unexpected gift. He believes AHRI may be able to get more done and accomplish more feats under the Trump regime than it could under the Obama or a potential Clinton presidency.

“We’ve already taken calls from the staff director of the Energy Commerce Committee in the House asking us what our priorities are,” Dietz explains. “They specifically wanted to talk about Energy Policy and Conservation Act [EPCA] reform, which is something AHRI has been working on. They seem interested in tackling such reforms, and we are interested in helping them with that.”

Francis Dietz, vice president, public affairs, AHRI

Dietz adds, however, that AHRI has absolutely no desire for the regulations to be gutted or tossed out.  In fact he told me that AHRI wants the White House and Congress to know that they aren’t doing the HVAC Industry any favors by burning down the house.

“We want to impress upon them that we are not against regulations. There are regulations we helped put into place, like EPCA. We’re not interested in gutting them; we want to improve them. It saves our bacon against states that want to over-regulate, like California.”

Is Trump Good for Business?

More than likely, businesses will benefit under President Trump. If Trump keeps his campaign promises, backed-up by the Republican Congress, we could put 2017 into the big plus column for small businesses and, in particular, the HVAC industry. Of course, as we all know, Washington is already up to its eyeballs in controversy and campaign promises fall by the wayside. So, take Trump’s promises, and these predictions, with a little grain of salt.

Based on what the media is saying, and the comments of James and Dietz, here are some of the positives I see that a Trump presidency offers to the HVAC industry:

• Easing of Bank/Lender Oversight — It’s always about the money. The 2010  Dodd-Frank law supercharged bank oversight with a cornucopia of rules and regulations to prevent another housing bubble bust and a subsequent years-long recession. Trump campaigned that he’d dismantle Dodd-Frank, which he — and the banking industry as well as Wall Street — insist is costly, time consuming, and unfriendly to lenders and consumers alike.

This is already underway. Word is out that Trump has another executive order ready to go that would repeal “The worst law of the year” — his words, not mine.

Trump will either replace it or come up with something new that can help loosen available money for home purchases and home refinance (See: home improvements). This act would help to increase consumer spending in the HVAC industry.

The HVAC industry welcomes any action that would increase the amount of money consumers are willing to spend on their HVAC systems.

• Residential Construction Increase — If the Dodd-Frank genie is put back into its bottle, mortgage lending can broaden and change zoning rules. That makes it easier to build and buy new homes.

That means more residential construction. The HVAC industry gets a leg up on new system installations as well as service expansion with a bigger demand for replacement parts and components. HVAC equipment manufacturers, distributors, and contractors could see an uptick in demand for products and services.

More residential construction demand is quite good for the HVAC industry.

• Commercial Construction Increase. This is one of Donald Trump’s pet areas of influence.

This wave of commercial office space construction, health care facilities, and Wall Street investments could prove beneficial to the HVAC industry.

• Regulating Regulations — The industry could certainly benefit from a loosening of the pending furnace efficiency standards and existing confined space rules. As Jerry Howard, CEO, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), said in an interview shortly after the Trump election victory, “The hallmark of his campaign was to reduce overzealous environmental and labor regulations that place burdens on businesses.”

Among the ones he cited were the U.S. Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) overtime rule, Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA’s) confined spaces rule, and the EPA’s lead-paint rule. You can add the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) furnace efficiency rule here, as well.

Though regulations are important, loosening those that strangle the industry could prove fantastic for the HVAC industry.

• Federal Corporate Tax Reduction — This was certainly high on the Trump election promise tree. CNBC’s Bob Pisani said Trump’s nominee for U.S. Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin, said in an on-air interview that the administration was still targeting a reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent that may extend to LLCs and S-Corps.

Voters may see their tax dreams come true under the Trump administration — but at what cost?

If this happens, it could account for a lot of dollars contractors can reinvest into their people, businesses, and brands.

Freeing up cash for reinvestment in this way is huge for the HVAC industry.

• Lower Personal Income Taxes — We hear this promise in every election cycle, but Trump may actually pull it off. He still has to work out how the government makes up for the revenue shortfall. Obviously such reductions benefit consumers across the board.

If consumers have more discretionary dollars, they will be more open to spending more. This includes buying home and HVAC performance systems and duct upgrades/renovations.

That is excellent for them and the HVAC Industry.

• Inheritance Tax?  — In his tax reduction plan, Trump mentioned replacing inheritance taxes with capital gains on estates valued at more than $10 million. Do you think that could help HVAC contractors who struggle with estate planning? You betcha it would.

It would help all small businesses interested in passing businesses on from one generation to the next.

This could be a home run for the HVAC industry.

• ObamaCare Goes By-by? — The process is already started. The Trump Administration wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or transform it into something that is more affordable. The plan calls for more competition and less government involvement to keep costs to employers and employees down.

ACCA’s James agrees with this position. He says, “I don’t believe Trump will completely clear ACA from the decks. I do expect major changes and hopefully significant reductions in premiums. That should allow contractors to have more choices for their businesses.”

Economic Stimulus

Today, there are two schools of thought on a potential economic stimulus. Some experts say the economy is already recovering. They add that any super influx of incentives and/or interest rate manipulations could have the opposite effect on economic growth. Others see stimulus as a key way to speed up the recovery. They see it as a perfect way to help “make America great again.” The latter “school” is divided on how how to implement and manage such a stimulus.

Will we see a Trump Administration economic stimulus package that breathes new life into alternative energy programs in 2017?

From an HVAC industry perspective, Barton James believes several stimulus/incentive programs might go away. The biggest is the 30 percent rebate on geothermal system sales. He sees incentives targeted toward solar and wind as being in danger, as well. He intimated that he had more hope for those incentives in a Clinton presidency. However, James doesn’t rule out the possibility that Trump will extend at least one of them.

Overall, 2017 offers the HVAC industry much to be optimistic about. The Trump presidency and Republican-dominated Congress creates a small business-friendly environment for the next four years. At least this provides the industry with a basis for investing in future success. Will there be bumps in the road? There already are. We are talking about Donald Trump here. But the positives of an environment where businesses have relief from burdensome rules and regulations, taxes, and overreaching government interference benefit everyone throughout the HVAC universe and the entire country.

And, THAT, is a good thing.